The Future of the Republican Party

       

     So, we are a little over two months from an election. As of now it looks like Trump will lose reelection, this raises an interesting question, what will the Republican Party become after Trump leaves office in either three months or four years?

 

    Firstly, let us talk about Trump. I think it is fairly non-controversial to say that Trump is not a typical Republican. An example of this is Trump has started trade wars, implemented tariffs, broke away from trade deals, and tried to renegotiate trade deals. Most Republicans are staunch defenders of the free market and are largely complacent with the status quo regarding trade. Trump is (at least rhetorically) against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and interventionist wars in general. Trump is comparatively more anti-immigration and arguably more in favor of regulating industry, such as tech and social media companies like Twitter, Facebook, and Google than typical Republicans. These are just a few examples where Trump, at least rhetorically breaks from the Republican Party.[1] Despite Trump being quite different from the average Republican politician, the Republican Party and its voters have largely fell in line and they mostly support him.[2] The question still remains what will happen to the Republican Party after Trump leaves office?

 

    I think a few things will happen simultaneously. The first is that there will be an almost civil war in the Republican Party over their identity. One of these groups will be Republicans and whites who feel disenfranchised by the ever-diversifying United States. These people will be more alt-right in their beliefs, rhetoric and actions and they will try and shift the Republican Party and its platform to be more far right and to try and more explicitly appeal to white people. The second group will be Republican and centrists who are dissatisfied with the Democratic Party. This group will try and shift the Republican Party to be more centrist and have them try to appeal to minority voters more effectively.

 

     The first group I mentioned will be comprised of many Trump-like imitator politicians who try and win state and local elections with campaigns and rhetoric that mimic Trump's. They will also be compromised of politicians who will be more explicitly alt-right in their policy goals, rhetoric, and actions than Trump is. This group will try and coop the Republican Party to further their beliefs, similar to what the Tea Party did in 2009. They will most likely use rhetoric and issues which will explicitly and implicitly appeal to white identity politics. They will also probably be comparatively less pro-capitalism, pro-globalism, and pro-free markets in favor of protectionism, regulation, and less immigration. I think like the Tea Party, they will be a mix of grass roots and astroturfed PACs, politicians, protests, radio shows, podcasts, and advocacy groups. Will they be successful?

    

     It is hard to say. There have been Trump-like figures both in their rhetoric and policies that have run for office in the US and abroad. One example is Faith Goldy in Canada, a few years ago she ran for mayor, with her slogan being "Canada first," which obviously suggests Trump and his "America First" campaign. She did lose her election with only receiving around three percent of the vote. Did she lose because she used Trump-like rhetoric and policies? Or did she lose because she was further right than Trump? Her failed campaign raises interesting questions, do people on the mainstream right like Trump because of his rhetoric and policies, or because they saw him as the only viable alternative to Hilary Clinton? We will get the answer to this question in the results of the 2020 presidential election. The biggest challenge for these Trump-like and alt-right aligned Republicans will face in actually winning elections will be balancing being too far right and too Trump-like in rhetoric with being able to appeal to the average Republican and centrist voters.

 

    The second thing which I think will happen in the Republican Party after Trump leaves power will be a group of Republican politicians, PACs, groups, podcasts, etcetera, etcetera, some grass roots and some not, shifting towards the center and trying to appeal to non-white voters (most likely Latinos and Hispanics). I could also see them trying to appeal to black voters through promising bipartisan efforts on police reform and criminal justice in general. Another group they may try and appeal to is Asian-Americans. One way they may do this is through pro-business legislation since many Asian-Americans are small-business owners. They could also potentially appeal to Asian-Americans through things like Affirmative Action reform since Affirmative Action has arguably negatively impacted Asian-Americans. This group of new Republicans will also probably be more Libertarian on certain issues like immigration, gun rights, taxes, government regulation and anti-terrorism. This group may also be more inclined to addressing climate change in substantive ways compared to more old school Republican politicians. The biggest problem this coalition of new Republicans will probably face is in actually appealing to minority voters for two main reasons. The first reason is that rightfully. or wrongfully, the Republican Party is seen as more racist than the Democratic Party. Another major issue this group will face is that if there is a vocal segment of alt-right aligned Republican politicians, they may have trouble distancing themselves from those alt-right politicians in the minds of voters and in how they are presented by left-wing media groups. Which would certainly negatively impact their appeal to minority voters.

 

    This is just describing how I think the Republican Party will react once Trump leaves office, not necessarily what I want them to do. Regardless of what will happen, the Republican Party has a great opportunity to remake themselves after Trump leaves and they would be foolish not to attempt to. Whether or not they actually will seize this opportunity remains to be seen.

[1] There have been a few Republican politicians and PACs which resist Trump, but Trump consistently polls at 80%+ with Republican voters, so for the most part other Republican politicians have supported the Trump administration and their policy goals.

 

[2] Despite Trump oftentimes using rhetoric where he paints himself as anti-establishment and as an outsider, policy wise he is fairly consistent with the more typical Republican lawmakers such as his tax cuts. This is why I said, “at least rhetorically breaks from the Republican Party."