The Future of The Democratic Party

       A little while ago I wrote about the direction I think the Republican Party will move in, after Trump leaves office. (Please read it and tell me how wrong you think I am.) A just as interesting question, is what direction the Democratic Party will go in. And what better time to talk about this, then when the Democratic National Convention is ongoing? 

    I think the Democratic Party will continue to promote identity politics and policies which address that. Their candidates will continue to become more diverse racially/ethnically and in regards to their sexuality and gender identity. This will happen on the local, state and even national level. This has already happened to a degree with their candidates for the 2020 presidential primary and during the midterm elections both the primary and the midterms saw historic representation for minorities. I think this trend will accelerate as the country becomes more diverse, regardless of if they take the White House in 2020. Their strategy of becoming the party which focuses on minorities seems to have worked fairly well so far, so I see no reason why they would change strategies, unless there is a radical shift in the political alignment of minorities in the United States. But what direction will they go in economically?

    Economically, I think the Democratic Party will also move further left by adopting many economic-populist stances such as UBI (as popularized by Andrew Yang), Medicare for all (an issue Bernie Sanders has repeatedly pushed for), and maybe Social Security reform. There are some left-wingers who are for economic protectionist policies, but I am not sure how mainstream or popular those ideas are. Additionally, I believe that the Democratic Party will become more explicitly anti-Capitalism, or at the very least become more in favor of regulating Capitalism. The justification for this could be to combat climate change, to address racial justice/equity and healthcare reform to deal with an ageing population. 

    The biggest issues they will face in winning elections are two things: not driving away white voters and not moving too far left economically. If they go too far in regards to identity politics, they could alienate white voters, who otherwise would vote for them. Resulting, similarly to how Trump in 2016 won in many states that had previously gone Democrat. Another challenge they will face in winning elections is in going too far left economically. The US is comparatively more right-wing and Conservative on the economy than many other countries. So if the Democratic Party goes too far left on certain economic issues, they may drive away more moderate voters. However, this may not be as big of an issue as one might think, because as demographics shift both racially and by generation, economic views may also shift. Some polling suggests Gen Z and Millennials are more skeptical of Capitalism than older generations. Gen Z and Millennials still vote at a lower rate than older generations, so older generations may continue to hold a disproportionate sway over politics, even as they become a smaller proportion of the population. Shifting too far left on identity politics and economic issues too quickly could, despite demographic shifts result in losing elections due to alienating white voters and economically moderate voters.