The Thucydides Trap

What is the Thucydides Trap? 

    The Thucydides trap is a concept first coined by Graham T. Allison, an American political scientist. The Thucydides trap is when there is an established power and a rising power whose political, economic, or military goals oppose each others. Oftentimes the two powers end up going to war due to their opposing interests. Although one might think the rising power and the established power would go to war directly with one another; however, the initial conflict is frequently due to local or minor powers bringing them into war through alliances. One example being the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. 

The Prelude to War:

     Athens began leading a coalition of Greek city-states, called the Delian League against the Persian Empire. After defeating the Persian Empire, Athens began to more and more explicitly dominate the Delian League and the members of the league became less of equal partners and more like vassals or subjects. Athens began using all the wealth they were receiving as tributes from Delian League members to build up a massive navy. While this is all going on, tensions began growing between Sparta and Athens. 

   Epidamnus was ruled by an oligarchy, but was facing a Democratic revolt. The oligarchs turned to Corcyra, the mother city of Epidamnus, while the democrats turned to Corinth, who was the mother city of Corcyra. Neither Corcyra nor Corinth were members of either the Pelopennesian League or the Delian League. Corcyra and Corinth were going to war with each other of Epidamnus and the Corcyrans asked Athens to help them out against Corinth because they felt the Corinthians were overstepping their bounds. Sparta then decided to intervene on behalf of Corinth which turned what may have been a small war between a few city-states into a devastating war which engulfed almost the entire Hellenic world.  

The Results: 

    Athens and Sparta, along with many other cities were completely devastated by the war and in many ways never fully recovered, but Sparta did win the war. Sparta dismantled the Athenian Empire and replaced the Athenian democratic government with an oligarchy loyal to Sparta called the "Thirty Tyrants." The Thirty Tyrants were eventually overthrown and Democracy was restored to Athens, but Athens was never really the same and less than a hundred years later it was subdued by the Macedonians. Ultimately, a dispute between a city-state and its colony became a major war which led to the dissolving of one of the largest political, economic and diplomatic powers in the Hellenic world.

Modern Implications

     Obviously the world of today is very different from the world of antiquity, but there are many similarities between the diplomatic situation of the ancient Greeks and of the US today. The US since the fall of the Soviet Union has been the sole world superpower, but times are changing. No empire has lasted unchecked forever. Just as Athens began being challenged by Sparta, the US has begun being challenged by China. China has been growing in influence and power since it opened up to outside trade in the 1980s. In fact, by some measures the Chinese economy has already surpassed the US economy. China has committed numerous human rights violations against its own citizens and against foreigners. China also frequently acts in ways that many other countries find objectionable on the world stage and oftentimes Chinese interests oppose US interests. China seems to be growing more aggressive year by year as it becomes more economically and militarily powerful, but will it ever lead to all out war?  

    Now one can say that the US and China will never go to war because both countries recognize that a conventional war would, at the very least, be extremely costly and that there would be no guarantee of victory, but what seems like an almost unrelated local conflict could escalate into an all out war between the US and China just like it did for Athens and Sparta so many centuries ago. Additionally, every single time the US fails to sanction or act against China when China breaks international law or opposes our interests, it makes it more likely that China will act in a similar way again. A few questions remain: What would happen if the US decided to intervene when China breaks international law or acts against our interests in Hong Kong or with how China is treating the Uyghurs? Should the US join organizations like the TPP which seek to limit China economically and diplomatically? Are there peaceful ways to effectively counteract growing Chinese power and influence? Should the US try to maintain its empire if it means war with China?